06-07 “The Economics of Inaction on Climate Change: A Sensitivity Analysis”

Economic models of climate change often take the problem seriously, but paradoxically conclude that the optimal policy is to do almost nothing about it. We explore this paradox as seen in the widely used DICE model. Three aspects of that model, involving the discount rate, the assumed benefits of moderate warming, and the treatment of the latest climate science, are sufficient to explain the timidity of the model's optimal policy recommendation. With modifications to those three points, DICE shows that the optimal policy is a much higher and rapidly rising marginal carbon price; that higher carbon price has a greater effect on physical measures of climate impacts. Our modifications exhibit nonlinear interactions; at least at low discount rates, there is synergy between individual changes to the model. At low discount rates, the inherent uncertainty about future damages looms larger in the analysis, rendering long-run economic modeling less useful. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of the model to three debatable assumptions; it does not, and could not, lead to a more reliably “optimal” cost of carbon. Cost-effectiveness analysis, focusing on the generally shorter-term cost side of the problem, reduces the economic paradoxes of the long run, and may make a greater contribution than economic optimization modeling.

A Semi-Blind Source Separation Method for Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy of Atmospheric Gas Mixtures

Differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) is a powerful tool for detecting and quantifying trace gases in atmospheric chemistry \cite{Platt_Stutz08}. DOAS spectra consist of a linear combination of complex multi-peak multi-scale structures. Most DOAS analysis routines in use today are based on least squares techniques, for example, the approach developed in the 1970s uses polynomial fits to remove a slowly varying background, and known reference spectra to retrieve the identity and concentrations of reference gases. An open problem is to identify unknown gases in the fitting residuals for complex atmospheric mixtures. In this work, we develop a novel three step semi-blind source separation method. The first step uses a multi-resolution analysis to remove the slow-varying and fast-varying components in the DOAS spectral data matrix $X$. The second step decomposes the preprocessed data $\hat{X}$ in the first step into a linear combination of the reference spectra plus a remainder, or $\hat{X} = A\,S + R$, where columns of matrix $A$ are known reference spectra, and the matrix $S$ contains the unknown non-negative coefficients that are proportional to concentration. The second step is realized by a convex minimization problem $S = \mathrm{arg} \min \mathrm{norm}\,(\hat{X} - A\,S)$, where the norm is a hybrid $\ell_1/\ell_2$ norm (Huber estimator) that helps to maintain the non-negativity of $S$. The third step performs a blind independent component analysis of the remainder matrix $R$ to extract remnant gas components. We first illustrate the proposed method in processing a set of DOAS experimental data by a satisfactory blind extraction of an a-priori unknown trace gas (ozone) from the remainder matrix. Numerical results also show that the method can identify multiple trace gases from the residuals.Comment: submitted to Journal of Scientific Computin

Novel ionization reagent for the measurement of gas-phase ammonia and amines using a stand-alone atmospheric pressure gas chromatography (APGC) source.

RationaleContaminants present in ambient air or in sampling lines can interfere with the target analysis through overlapping peaks or causing a high background. This study presents a positive outcome from the unexpected presence of N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone, released from a PALL HEPA filter, in the analysis of atmospherically relevant gas-phase amines using chemical ionization mass spectrometry.MethodsGas-phase measurements were performed using a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer equipped with a modified atmospheric pressure gas chromatography (APGC) source which allows sampling of the headspace above pure amine standards. Gas-phase N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) emitted from a PALL HEPA filter located in the inlet stream served as the ionizing agent.ResultsThis study demonstrates that some alkylamines efficiently form a [NMP + amine+H]+ cluster with NMP upon chemical ionization at atmospheric pressure. The extent of cluster formation depends largely on the proton affinity of the amine compared with that of NMP. Aromatic amines (aniline, pyridine) and diamines (putrescine) were shown not to form cluster ions with NMP.ConclusionsThe use of NMP as an ionizing agent with stand-alone APGC provided high sensitivity for ammonia and the smaller amines. The main advantages, in addition to sensitivity, are direct sampling into the APGC source and avoiding uptake on sampling lines which can be a significant problem with ammonia and amines

Generating Bulk-Scale Ordered Optical Materials Using Shear-Assembly in Viscoelastic Media

We review recent advances in the generation of photonics materials over large areas and volumes, using the paradigm of shear-induced ordering of composite polymer nanoparticles. The hard-core/soft-shell design of these particles produces quasi-solid “gum-like” media, with a viscoelastic ensemble response to applied shear, in marked contrast to the behavior seen in colloidal and granular systems. Applying an oscillatory shearing method to sub-micron spherical nanoparticles gives elastomeric photonic crystals (or “polymer opals”) with intense tunable structural color. The further engineering of this shear-ordering using a controllable “roll-to-roll” process known as Bending Induced Oscillatory Shear (BIOS), together with the interchangeable nature of the base composite particles, opens potentially transformative possibilities for mass manufacture of nano-ordered materials, including advances in optical materials, photonics, and metamaterials/plasmonics

Comparisons of Native and Non-Native Lady Beetles: Habitat Distribution and Interactions with Prey and Competitors

Lady beetles (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), as a group, are considered beneficial because they prey on plant pests. A number of studies suggest that non-native species introduced for biological control have replaced native species in agriculture. Agricultural and non-agricultural habitats were thus surveyed in Maine to determine if native species were still dominant in some areas. In 2004 and 2005, 3,487 and 2,903 beetles were collected, respectively, with non-native species dominant in all but one habitat (coniferous forest). Native species were found in very low numbers in all habitats surveyed. Comparisons between species were then conducted to determine if differences exist that might provide an advantage to some species over others. Consumption of four aphid species by one native (Coccinella trifasciata) and three non-native (Coccinella septempunctata, Harmonia axyridis, Propylea quatuordecimpunctata) species were compared. Harmonia axyridis generally consumed the most aphids; P. quatuordecimpunctata consumed the fewest. Coccinella trifasciata, however, consumed the most of one aphid species, Macrosiphum albifrons. Direct competition for prey was compared between native (C. trifasciata, Coleomegilla maculata, Hippodamia convergens) and non-native (C. septempunctata, H. axyridis, Hippodamia variegata, P. quatuordecimpunctata) species. Harmonia axyridis had the highest aphid consumption, shortest prey discovery time, and generally exhibited the most aggression towards other species. Consumption by C. trifasciata and C. maculata varied depending on with which species they were paired. Interactions between native and non-native species (same species as above) and the European fire ant (Myrmica rubra) tending aphid prey were compared. Harmonia axyridis consumed more aphids than all other species but C. septempunctata. Hippodamia variegata and C. septempunctata were effected the most by ant stings. These differences may explain, in part, the successful establishment of some non-native coccinellids in new habitats and suggest that asymmetric interactions between species may affect their ability to co-exist. Studies evaluating relationships between newly sympatric coccinellids, tending ants, and plant-feeding insects were summarized. Research has been driven by concerns about the effects of invasive ants (primarily Pheidole megacephala, Solenopsis invicta, and Linephithema humile) on the effectiveness of pest control by coccinellids (primarily Cryptolaemus montrouzieri and C. septempunctata). Ants interfered with coccinellid predation in 56 of 77 studies

Shoe or stew? Balancing wants and needs in Indigenous households: A study of appropriate income support payments and policies for families

Can service delivery and program development accommodate cultural parameters? What bureaucratic mechanisms could encompass such accommodations in program delivery and/or policy stance? Such fundamental questions are addressed in this discussion paper by charting the process of undertaking field-based research on the effectiveness of government income support payments to Indigenous families for care of children. The paper details how the pilot study for the field investigation led firstly, to issues of appropriate research methodology and field practice, and secondly, required careful specification of the arenas of Indigenous domestic life which could, or should, give grounds to justify State intervention and scrutiny as an action in the 'best interests' of Indigenous people. An immediate outcome of the pilot study is that Aboriginal domestic circumstances and family life are far more complex and volatile than policy makers might expect, or than service deliverers may be able to accommodate. Ethnographic literature confirms this. It adds weight to the view argued here, that policy and program intervention must be carefully handled because many of the identified internal dynamics of Indigenous welfare-based households have yet to be fully understood. These dynamics relate to income poverty, patterns of household expenditure and wider issues of sociality as these are impacted upon by residential mobility and the differential demands of age and gender on household membership, stability and economic wellbeing. Arguably, the conclusions of the Kuranda pilot study project indicate that basic issues of infrastructure, namely, appropriate and adequate housing and access to public transport, remain core concerns for Indigenous households and the quality of life that they experience. Amelioration of these factors of service provision alone would directly enhance the circumstances in which welfare-reliant Indigenous families in Kuranda endeavour to care for their families' needs

Effect of BMI and Binge Eating on Food Reward and Energy Intake: Further Evidence for a Binge Eating Subtype of Obesity

Background: The psychological characteristics of binge eating have been proposed as a phenotype to further understanding of overconsumption and susceptibility to obesity. This study examined the influence of trait binge eating in lean and overweight or obese women on appetite, food reward and energy intake. Methods: 25 lean and 25 overweight or obese women were categorised as either ‘binge type' or ‘non-binge type' based on their scores on the Binge Eating Scale. Food reward and food intake were assessed in fasted and fed conditions. Results: Overweight or obese binge types (O-B) consumed more energy than overweight or obese non-binge types (O-NB) and lean binge (L-B) and non-binge types (L-NB). Both L-B and O-B exhibited greater preference for sweet foods. In O-NB, L-B and L-NB, lower liking and wanting for sweet foods was exhibited in the fed condition compared to the fasted condition. However, in O-B wanting for sweet foods was greater when they were fed compared to when they were in a fasted state. Conclusions: These findings provide further support for trait binge eating as a hedonic subtype of obesity. Binge types were characterised by greater intake of high-fat sweet foods and increased wanting for these foods when satiated. Additionally, these findings highlight the potential for separation in liking and wanting for food as a marker of susceptibility to overeat

Is the Scottish population living dangerously? Prevalence of multiple risk factors: the Scottish Health Survey 2003

<b>Background:</b> Risk factors are often considered individually, we aimed to investigate the prevalence of combinations of multiple behavioural risk factors and their association with socioeconomic determinants.<p></p> <b>Methods:</b> Multinomial logistic regression was used to model the associations between socioeconomic factors and multiple risk factors from data in the Scottish Health Survey 2003. Prevalence of five main behavioural risk factors - smoking alcohol, diet, overweight/obesity, and physical inactivity, and the odds in relation to demographic, individual and area socioeconomic factors.<p></p> <b>Results:</b> Full data were available on 6,574 subjects (80.7% of the survey sample). Nearly the whole adult population (97.5%) reported to have at least one behavioural risk factor; while 55% have three or more risk factors; and nearly 20% have four or all five risk factors. The most important determinants for having four or five multiple risk factors were low educational attainment which conferred around a 3-fold increased odds compared to high education; and residence in the most deprived communities (relative to least deprived) which had greater than 3-fold increased odds.<p></p> <b>Conclusions:</b> The prevalence of multiple behavioural risk factors was high and the prevalence of absence of all risk factors very low. These behavioural patterns were socioeconomically determined. Policy to address factors needs to be joined up and better consider underlying socioeconomic circumstances.<p></p&gt

Carabid and Staphylinid beetles from agricultural land in the lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia

Pit-traps were emptied every two or three days for two seasons in crop, fallow, and grass plots to determine the species and population density of Carabidae and Staphylinidae associated with agricultural land, and their relationship with brassica crops. Half of the plots were enclosed by plastic barriers and the beetles were trapped to extinction: half were not enclosed. Thirty-three carabid and 16 staphylinid species were captured. The dominant species was the small, generalized. European carabid predator, <i>Bembidion lampros</i>, which had a population on crop and fallow land of about 29000/hectare. It was almost absent in grass. Other numerous carabids were <i>Harpalus aeneus</i>, <i>Calathus fuscipes</i>, and <i>Clivina fossor</i>, all introduced European spp., with populations of almost 2000, 5600, and llOOO/hectare respectively. The first and third of these were scarce in grassland but the second was abundant. In plots of Brussels sprouts <i>Aleochara bilineata</i>, a staphylinid, was effectively parasitic on root maggots, and averaged more than 6000/hectare. Soil cores taken in October centred on a Brussels sprouts plant averaged 26.4 <i>Hylemya puparia</i> per core of which 44% were parasitized by <i>A. bilineata</i>